Where does the data in the 2026 palm leaf industry report come from?

Which sources does the report use, and for what?

Every number in the report falls into one of three kinds. Some are official statistics. Some are estimates built from two or three independent sources. A few are my own judgement from running a palm leaf business, and those are labelled as such where they appear. The table shows which source feeds what in the Palm Leaf Tableware Industry Report 2026.

Which customs codes does the report count as palm leaf plates?

India is the only country with an eight-digit customs line for palm leaf articles, ITC-HS 4602.19.19. The report counts it together with 4602.19.90, the general line for other plaiting materials, because plate exporters use both and the price per kilo and buyers on 4602.19.90 match the plate trade. In October 2026 we also checked 9602, 4419 and 1404. Their prices per kilo are far from those of plates, so they do not hide a large plate trade. An older line, 4602.90.90, returned nil in our June 2026 pull and is no longer used.

These codes sit under heading 4602, which mostly covers basketwork and wickerwork. The palm leaf lines are cleaner than the heading, but they still carry some non-plate items. On my assessment that adds noise of about 5 to 10%. For more on how the codes work at the border, see the HSN 4602 customs guide.

How is the raw material supply of 7 billion sheaths estimated?

By multiplying three things. The area under areca, taken from government horticulture statistics. The number of palms per hectare. And the number of sheaths each palm sheds in a year, which comes from what we see in the orchards we buy from.

For density the report uses 1,089 palms per hectare. That is on the low side: CPCRI’s growing guide recommends 2.7 m square spacing, which works out to more palms than that, and we see up to 1,400 per hectare in mixed orchards. Using the lower figure keeps the estimate cautious. The result, about 7 billion sheaths a year, is our estimate, and the report shows the upper and lower bounds next to it.

How is the industry’s capacity of 80 to 120 million plates a month estimated?

From three directions that should meet. First, the capacity that named manufacturers state publicly or have told us. Second, working back from recorded exports plus an estimate of domestic use. Third, what each of the five producer tiers can typically turn out.

The range is wide because the bottom of the market is hard to see. Cottage units work seasonally and do not appear in customs or tax data. Our rough figure for them alone is 50 to 80 million plates a month in season, an order of magnitude rather than a measurement.

Why does the report count plates instead of kilograms?

Because plate weight varies too much with size. A 6-inch round plate weighs about 18 grams, a 10-inch plate about 40 grams, and a 14-inch platter more than 70 grams. Customs data is kept in kilograms, and an average weight across a mixed shipment tells a buyer very little.

So the report converts to pieces using about 25 plates per kilogram, and to containers at 14 to 16 tonnes of mixed finished plates per 40ft container. Values are in US dollars throughout so markets and years can be compared. If you plan your own loads, our container calculator will help.

What are the limits of the data?

There are three, and they are stated wherever they affect a figure. Domestic sales are the hardest to measure. When this page was first published, HSN-wise GST data was not released publicly, and we have asked the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs for it under the Right to Information Act. The June 2026 refresh anchors domestic value to registered GSTN outward-supply figures and treats that as a floor.

The cottage tier is invisible to customs and tax records. And the FY 2025-26 export figures were provisional as of 19 May 2026, so they will move when DGCI&S revises them.

Where any of these bears on a number, the report takes the lower figure it can defend, shows the upper one, and says where the uncertainty comes from.